Updated: More statistics that supports why North Carolina won’t might swing blue

nc2004election.jpg While I’ve already gone over this once before, it doesn’t hurt to point out some more mathematics based on pure statistics and trends.
First, electoral votes are based which counties go where. As far as presidential candidacies goes, it’s always based on electoral votes, not popularity so the amount of new voters doesn’t actually effect your overall statistics, if your overall was already strong in the places where the new voters wouldn’t swing around anyways.
If you take a look at CNN’s presidential election of 2004, you can see that North Carolina’s votes determine the true turnout of how this state is set up. If you take all of the white counties (which would be neutral counties where the contest was pretty even), and turned them all blue, you still would be in the minority when it came to taking the state. On top of this pretty obvious position, even if you were to add all of the urban counties in that did not vote blue before, you still wouldn’t have enough to take majority.
Unfortunately, that also means that to swing this state at all, you would need to be campaigning in small, rural counties that have historically in the past few decades bled red.
Based on pure statistics and historical trend, the likelihood of North Carolina being even considered a swing state is an unlikely one. Which makes me wonder how accurate the polls are elsewhere since all it took was sitting down and understanding how the state was broken down and how the voting process works. No wonder right wingers claim that mainstream media slants left. I personally still watch CNN, but this bit does degrade my trust in them a bit.
Update: I’m told that electoral votes are based on popular votes. Well I’ll be damned. If that’s the case, then I really don’t see what the big whoopie is about people being against electoral votes. Unless the elector doesn’t vote with popular vote. I still don’t believe NC will swing, but the probability becomes a lot larger from a mathematical stand point. The place where it fails is the historical trend data pulls it to the red still from a predictability factor.

  • All of North Carolina’s electoral votes go to the winner of the statewide popular vote.

  • All of North Carolina’s electoral votes go to the winner of the statewide popular vote.

  • Concern about the electoral votes usually is about the national outcome — as when Gore got more popular votes but lost in the electoral college.
    There is some discussion of apportioning electoral votes within particular states according to the popular vote in each state, and also of tying the electoral votes of each state to the national popular vote.

  • Concern about the electoral votes usually is about the national outcome — as when Gore got more popular votes but lost in the electoral college.
    There is some discussion of apportioning electoral votes within particular states according to the popular vote in each state, and also of tying the electoral votes of each state to the national popular vote.