I don’t know why CNN and the rest of mainstream media keep pushing poll numbers with McCain trailing and with Virginia and North Carolina as possible swing states.
Anyone that knows me well, knows which way I’ll vote in this election, but I find it amusing as hell that the rest of the nation has not had anyone look at historical voting trends within states. In fact, it’ll just be much more apparent in this election what was in the Bush/Kerry election of 2004.
First off, registering voters means… well… not too much when it comes to where it’s coming from. Most of the newly registered voters are in urban counties. Unfortunately, what pollsters are not accounting for is that urban counties only account for 10% of this state. That means that 90% of the counties are considered rural and the majority of them have a consistent history of voting red. Solid South, anyone?
On top of this, the last election proved that the counties with urban areas were all blue, but by slim margins. This time around with the new influx of voters, it might be greater margins in those counties but overall, Obama would still need to take the small towns. And that’s where the polls I have a feeling are inaccurate. Pollsters don’t bother with actual historical trends nor do they look at how geography divides up the states. They just go by wherever they call (which happens to be urban areas if you ever take a look at their dialing patterns).
Come November 4th, take a look at the state’s county divisions and if the state doesn’t go red, I’ll be seriously surprised. With three major military bases, and a strong Bible Belt backing, I can’t seriously even buy into the whole “North Carolina” is a swing state garbage. Propaganda at its finest.
Maybe I’ll just eat my words come election day. But unless NC bucks a huge trend they’ve set in the past, I don’t think it’ll happen. Not here.